Abstract: To effectively manage sustainably groundwater bodies, it is essential to establish what the naturally occurring ranges of chemical concentrations in groundwaters are and how they change over time. We defined baseline trends for New Zealand groundwaters using: 1) pattern recognition techniques to deal with inconsistent monitoring suites between the national (110 sites) and the denser regional network (\textgreater1000 sites), and 2) multivariate statistics to identify and remove impacted sites from the enhanced dataset. Rates of changes were calculated for 13 parameters between January 2005 and December 2014 at more than 1000 groundwater quality monitoring sites. The resulting dataset included 262 complete cases (CC), which was enhanced using Machine-Learning (ML) techniques to a total of 607 sites. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to identify trend clusters that were consistent between the CC, ML-enhanced datasets and a 2006 study based on solely on the national network. The largest cluster (WR) consisted of low magnitude changes across all parameters and was attributed to water-rock interaction processes. The second largest cluster (I) exhibited fast changes particularly for parameters linked to human-induced impact. The third largest cluster (D) comprised decreases of all parameters and was associated with dilution processes. Trend clusters were further refined using groundwater quality state information, enabling the identification of impacted sites outside of Cluster I in the ML-enhanced and CC datasets. Corresponding trend baselines were subsequently derived at unimpacted sites using univariate quantile distribution (5th and 95th percentile thresholds). Finally, we developed classifications combining baselines (state and trend) and natural variability to enhance state of the environment reporting. This allowed the new identification of deteriorating trends at sites where groundwater quality state is not yet affected in addition to trend reversals. These classifications can be adapted to incorporate new knowledge or align with surface water quality reporting.

Abstract: Apart from some notable exceptions, the sound governance of transboundary aquifers (coupled or uncoupled to rivers) is seriously lacking in most regions of the world, despite a highly successful 20-year ISARM initiative. The distinction between regions of water abundance (as in the Haute Savoie–Geneva aquifers) and those of water scarcity (\textless1000 m3/an/capita), as in the Rum-Saq aquifer, ought to be a driver for the urgency in adopting sound governance. In the latter regions, however, such an urgent response faces too many hurdles (institutional, financial, and weak capacity). Climate change, one of the global megatrends (among demography, economic shift, resources stress, urbanization, and novel viruses such as COVID-19), will exacerbate the problem in the coming decade and beyond. This chapter provides an critical perspective on the status of this subsurface asset in 570 or so, domestic and transboundary aquifers of the world (self-identified by country experts), while taking full account of their interconnections, or not, with surface waters. This critical perspective will be grounded in two important factors, first the hiatus in adoption by countries of the evolving international water law and guidance on transboundary aquifers (the Draft Articles, which provide legal pathways for collaboration or eventually dispute resolution), and second the framework of the sustainable development goals (SDG) 6 (clean water and sanitation), which countries have committed themselves to with reference to transboundary waters. The critical perspective finds that despite the lack of momentum in adopting formal global norms, sporadic cooperation and collaboration is continuing and is well received, when delivered methodically through the support of international agencies. The findings of the critical perspective are that even if water-related SDGs will have been achieved across the world, it would contribute precious little to meaningful enhancement of governance of transboundary aquifers, unless they have been explicitly addressed in terms that are tangible to decision makers, such as the impact of disregarding them on the current or future national GDP. The onset of a “new socioeconomic normal” in the aftermath of COVID-19 could further defer meaningful progress, taking the example of Latin America, where a 5% decline has been forecast for 2020. With such declines in the finances of governments, attention to shared aquifer resources may well decline even further. Urgent wise reaction to this possibility must be a priority for the professional science-policy community.